On-chain data points to a slower bottom for Bitcoin. The key band “RP Alive” sits below $59,000, hinting the base is only starting to form.

Analyst: Bitcoin bottom may take six months, RP Alive falls below $59k

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. shared an on-chain read on May 2. He uses an adjusted Realized Price Bands model that filters dormant supply and tracks the live circulating base. It highlights where major holders sit at or near losses, marking historic accumulation zones. Analyst post

Per CryptoQuant data shown in the post, the lower bound “RP Alive” is now under $59,000. That zone can mark the start of a bottom and implies one more leg down is possible. Further downside case

Adler Jr. warned the bottom is not a “one or two week process.” His base case is around six months. He says demand drives bottoms, and “real demand” forms over time, not on emotions or local bounces. Current on-chain reads show apparent demand is still weak. Demand remains weak

Price context: Bitcoin trades near $78,458, little changed on the day, and up about 2% week over week. Price update Recent optimism dates back to early April, but on-chain suggests patience. April trend context

• Key level: RP Alive below $59,000 suggests the bottoming zone. Source
• Timeline: Base case ~6 months for bottom formation. Source
• Driver: Return of genuine spot demand, still weak now. Source
• Risk: One more leg down before a durable base. Source