Bitcoin Anticipates PPI Report for Federal Reserve Direction

After the unexpected rise in U.S. consumer price inflation (CPI), attention shifts to the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) report.

Key points about the PPI report:

• Year-over-year PPI is expected at 3.2%, down from December’s 3.3%
• Month-on-month PPI anticipated to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%
• Core PPI projected to increase to 0.3% from 0% in December
• From January last year, Core PPI is expected to ease to 3.3%

Potential implications of the data:

• Hotter data could delay Fed rate cuts, negatively impacting risk assets
• Softer data may weaken the dollar and lower treasury yields, benefiting risk assets

Market reactions following CPI data:

• Treasury yields peaked at 4.6% before a slight retreat
• The Dollar Index (DXY) spiked to 108.5 then fell below 108
• Major asset classes including bitcoin (BTC), U.S. equities, and gold ended the session positively

Upcoming events that could influence markets:

• Feb. 13: Coinbase to report fourth-quarter earnings
• Feb. 13: Kraken will begin delisting certain stablecoins
• Feb. 21: TON becomes the exclusive blockchain infrastructure for Telegram's Mini App ecosystem

Market movement summary:

• BTC is down 1.53% to $96,206.67
• ETH is down 0.23% at $2,677.69
• DXY is down 0.34% at 107.58
• Gold increased by 1.26% to $2945.7/oz
• Silver rose by 0.49% to $32.85/oz

Technical analysis indicates bitcoin remains below the 50-day simple moving average, suggesting potential bearish momentum, with immediate support around $90,000.

In equity markets:

• MicroStrategy closed at $326.82 (+2.3%)
• Coinbase closed at $274.90 (+3%)
• Galaxy Digital Holdings closed at C$26.87 (+1.24%)

Funding rates in perpetual futures for some cryptocurrencies remain negative, indicating a bias for shorts. Annualized funding rates for BTC and ETH are near 5%. Overall selling pressure raises questions about the sustainability of the recent recovery post-CPI.