Bitcoin heads for sixth monthly loss; long-term holders sell at losses

BTC holds $66k–$67k range; options stay cautious, LTH SOPR drops below 1.0

Bitcoin briefly hit ~$65k in thin Asia trade, then snapped back to its $66k–$67k band, per QCP. Traders watch Apr 6 as Trump’s 10‑day strike pause nears expiry.

QCP sees a repeat pattern this month: weekend risk‑off, weekday grind higher. The desk expects BTC to stay headline‑driven and rangebound into early April while the strike pause holds. QCP Market Colour (Mar 30).

Options tone is cautious, not panicked. Post‑expiry vol compression is muted, gamma remains bid, overwriters sit out, and the vol surface leans defensive. QCP.

QCP flags geopolitics as the swing factor. Washington signals escalation risk amid troop buildup; Iran‑aligned actors in Yemen threaten Bab al‑Mandeb. A blockade could worsen the inflation shock and keep the stagflation premium alive. QCP.

Price action stays heavy. BTC is on track for a sixth straight red monthly close and the first three‑month losing start to a year, underscoring fragile sentiment. QCP.

On‑chain stress is building. Long‑Term Holder SOPR slipped below 1.0, meaning veteran wallets are realizing losses—typical early capitulation behavior that has preceded bottoming phases in past cycles. CryptoQuant analysis by Crypto Dan.