Bitcoin supply at a loss reaches 43%, nears bear territory

43% of Bitcoin supply sits at a loss. The market leans closer to bear-phase conditions than a confirmed bull, per on‑chain data.

CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost says UTXO data shows 57% of supply in profit and 43% in loss. He frames ~75% supply in profit as the historical line where bull trends “confirm and accelerate.” Below that, corrections tend to deepen. Source: Darkfost on X.

Key points
- 43% of UTXO-held supply in loss. 57% in profit. Source
- Historical bull threshold near 75% of supply in profit. Source
- Market shows stabilization signs, but further downside could push loss share toward ~45%, a level seen in prior bears. Source

Macro pressure builds. Darkfost links on‑chain deterioration to oil’s rally as tensions rise around the Strait of Hormuz. He notes oil is up over 60% year‑to‑date. The strait handles ~20% of daily global oil exports and nearly 35% of seaborne oil. Higher oil feeds inflation expectations and risk stress, a poor mix for speculative assets like BTC. Source.

What to watch next
- Can profit share reclaim ~75% to confirm a bull trend
- Or do macro stress and LTH selling push more supply into loss first Source