Charles Edwards says Bitcoin in value zone, awaits stronger confirmation
Edwards says Bitcoin sits in a historical value zone, not deep value. He sees it closer to the bottom, but lacks confirmation for a durable low.
In an interview with CCI’s Joe Shew, the Capriole founder calls price action damaged, while on-chain metrics show value. He stays cautious.
What would excite him more:
- The production-cost band around $50k–$60k, with low-to-mid $50k “particularly attractive” historically
- A deeper capitulation or a clear technical breakout per the interview
Flows help, but don’t decide:
- Net buys from US spot ETFs and ~200 treasury holders matter, especially when inflows beat daily mined supply he said and treasury cohort data
- About 80% of ETFs and treasuries are below cost basis, keeping “bear market vibes” per this analysis
- A stronger tell would be steady positive flows for 1–2 weeks while price holds above $70k, with a weekly close over ~$71,500 as the line in the sand he noted
- Even a run into mid-$70k or low $80k may not end the broader bearish structure per Edwards
Key overhang:
- Quantum computing risk still caps upside until Bitcoin Core addresses it, in his view background
- He expects repricing once core devs prioritize solutions per the interview
Positioning:
- Capriole holds a small net long in BTC today he said
- Macro backdrop favors hard assets and gold vs. equities, but he still sees value, not deep value, for Bitcoin context
