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Bitwise shows 5-year Bitcoin holds cut loss odds to 0.2%
Bitwise shows loss odds on Bitcoin drop fast with longer holds. Short-term risk stays high; multi‑year holds see near‑zero loss rates source.
- 1 day: 47.1% chance of loss chart
- 1 week: 44.7% chart
- 1 month: 43.2% chart
- 1 quarter: 37.6% chart
- 1+ year: 24.3% chart
- 3+ years: 0.7% chart
- 5+ years: 0.2% chart
- 10‑year cohorts: no observed losses in the dataset chart
Short windows stay noisy. One‑day to one‑month holds show elevated loss odds and sentiment‑driven swings STH flows short squeezes.
Context matters. The analysis circulates as investors navigate an ongoing bear phase bear market.
Multi‑year patience dominates outcomes. Big wins often come from 5–10+ year holders and early whales, consistent with the loss‑probability collapse over long horizons 13‑year cohort patience theme.
