Options traders load BTC calls as odds of $80k breakout rise

Traders rotate back into calls on Bitcoin. Derive.xyz puts 35% odds on an $80k reclaim by end‑June; prediction markets show a fast sentiment flip.

- Derive.xyz estimates about a 35% probability that Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $80,000 by the end of Q2 2026. Derive.xyz

- Polymarket odds for BTC hitting $80,000 by March month‑end jumped in one session from 20% to 39%. The $75,000 contract moved from 40% to 67%. Polymarket markets update

- Options skew snapped back into bullish territory. Seven‑ and 30‑day skew rebounded from panic lows near −25% in early February to roughly +10%, versus a neutral band of −6% to +6%. The shift implies traders are unwinding puts and adding upside exposure. Derive.xyz

- Technical context tracks the same pivot. An unfilled CME gap at $79,660–$81,210 is cited as a near‑term magnet; support sits near the 20‑day EMA around $68,700. A daily close above $80,000 would confirm extension; a rejection risks a $68.7k–$70k retest. Coinspeaker

- Event risk looms. The March 18 Fed decision is flagged as a potential volatility catalyst, with implied vol elevated into the print. Coinspeaker

- Positioning skews constructive but measured. Hedge funds have leaned on call‑overwriting to monetize elevated vol rather than chase outright delta. Coinspeaker on hedge fund derivatives flows

Also noted on the tape: Polymarket prices a 34% chance that BTC reclaims $100,000 in 2026. Polymarket

Further reading:
- Bitcoin options structure and the risk of a $60k retest Coinspeaker
- BTC breakout and the $72k supply wall Coinspeaker