The Kobeissi Letter
Sep 21, 2026
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Global gold ETF holdings reach 100 million ounces, nine-month high

1 min

Gold-backed ETFs show sustained inflows and a rebound in holdings that historically aligned with price trends until mid-August. If that relationship resumes, models based on holdings imply potential gold prices above $5,000 in the coming months.

Key data

  • Global gold ETF holdings: ~100 million ounces, near a 9-month high.
  • Change since July low: +4 million ounces, fully recovering the April–July decline.
  • Flow streak: 8 consecutive daily inflows, the longest since October 2025.
  • Price correlation: Gold prices tracked ETF holdings until mid-August, then lagged.

Implication

  • If prices realign with the renewed rise in ETF holdings, scenario analysis points to levels above $5,000.
  • Investor behavior: Accelerated allocations into gold funds indicate rising demand.

Source: @TheKobeissiLetter