Israel-Lebanon truce lifts Bitcoin to $74,650 as US-Iran peace talks prospects improve

Bitcoin rebounded as de‑escalation bets firmed. Traders priced a higher chance the US–Iran ceasefire holds.

Prediction markets moved first. Polymarket shows a 23% chance of a permanent US–Iran peace deal by April 22 per Polymarket odds.

Price followed. Bitcoin climbed to $74,650 on Thursday, rebounding from earlier weakness, per CoinGecko data.

The trigger was diplomacy. Donald Trump announced a 10‑day Israel–Lebanon ceasefire, saying the truce begins immediately on Truth Social. Details on the 10‑day term were reported by The Manila Times.

Momentum built earlier this week. Bitcoin briefly touched $76,000 amid hopes the broader US–Iran conflict could ease per CoinGecko, as analysis pointed to a possible wind‑down in hostilities via CNN.

Risks remain. Markets wobbled after the US move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, though conditions have since stabilized per Fortune.

Key levels and catalysts traders watch:
- $74,650 Thursday rebound and the week’s $76,000 print per CoinGecko
- 23% odds of a US–Iran permanent deal by Apr 22 Polymarket
- 10‑day Israel–Lebanon truce now in effect Manila Times, announced by Trump Truth Social
- Strait of Hormuz blockade headline risk Fortune