PlanB projects Bitcoin average price of $500,000 in 2024-2028 halving cycle
PlanB says the Stock-to-Flow model puts Bitcoin’s cycle average near $500,000 from 2024 to 2028. The S2F path on his chart climbs toward that level by 2027.
This is not a call for an instant spike. PlanB’s view is that the whole post‑halving window could average ~$500,000 if S2F keeps holding. The post and chart are here: PlanB on X.
Price action is choppy. Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000 in the past day after swinging from above $73,000 on March 5 to the mid‑$60,000s, then back up again (NewsBTC; Bitcoinist).
The setup tests S2F’s validity. Either Bitcoin is undervalued here, or the model has broken.
Two supports sit just below spot: realized cost price and the 200‑week moving average. Both are shown on PlanB’s chart.
On‑chain pain is visible. About 43% of addresses hold at a loss (NewsBTC). Losses are concentrated in short‑term holders and treasury buyers (Bitcoinist).
Several analysts still see downside risk. They warn the correction may not have found a bottom yet (NewsBTC). One report notes a drawdown of over 45% from the October 2025 peak (NewsBTC).
Bitcoin S2F model and price overlays by PlanB
Headline: PlanB: S2F points to $500,000 average for Bitcoin in 2024–2028 cycle
