Senate blocks CLARITY Act, leaving crypto bill stalled before midterms
The U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on September 15, 2026. The comprehensive cryptocurrency bill had President Donald Trump’s backing. Prediction market odds show traders doubt it will become law soon: on Kalshi, the probability that the CLARITY Act, or a similar crypto market structure bill, becomes law before January 1, 2028 is 27%.
The cloture motion did not reach the 60-vote threshold. Reuters reported a 50-49 vote in favor, while Congress.gov recorded a 49-50 margin. The motion therefore failed to proceed.
Republican Senators Jerry Moran, Susan Collins, Josh Hawley, and Thom Tillis voted no. The outcome was a setback for digital-asset firms and Republicans who had supported the bill for months.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Group of Senate Democrats say they are "committed to working in a bipartisan fashion" to pass the CLARITY Act. pic.twitter.com/T6Dipr84yV
— Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) September 17, 2026
Why prediction market odds still give the bill a chance
Clarity Act Law – Prediction Market Odds Kalshi
The vote did not kill the bill. Congress is set to leave Washington before the November midterm elections, according to Reuters, which places the measure on hold rather than ending it.
Senator Tillis switched his vote from yes to no to preserve a procedural path for reconsideration. Congress.gov shows he filed a motion to reconsider on September 15. The vote was not a final passage vote.
Kalshi odds reflect this uncertainty: traders price a 25% chance the bill becomes law before October 1, 2027, and 11% before July 1, 2027. The longest-dated contract traded near 60% in early September and fell after the vote.
What the CLARITY Act would change
The bill would establish a regulatory framework for digital assets. It delineates oversight roles for the SEC and CFTC in the offer and sale of digital commodities and addresses registration, digital-commodity exchanges, brokers, dealers, and rulemaking.
My thanks go to everyone who put so much effort into the CLARITY Act— across the Administration, Congress, investors, and innovators. Our collective conviction that America must continue to lead is indispensable.
I have been unequivocal: with or without legislation, we will act…
— Paul Atkins (@SECPaulSAtkins) September 16, 2026
Senate Republicans released revised text the Sunday before the vote, reported by Reuters, to address concerns from banks and some Democrats. The changes did not secure sufficient support. The crypto industry spent hundreds of millions of dollars campaigning for the bill.
The House has passed the measure. Congress.gov lists Senator Tillis’s motion to reconsider as the latest Senate action.
The SEC and CFTC fill the gap
Coinbase CEO
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong described the outcome as disappointing and said the SEC and CFTC can use existing powers to set clearer rules. Reuters reported the agencies are positioned to act.
Experts cited by Reuters said only Congress can establish a durable framework. Agency rules can change with political leadership or face court challenges.
Markets reacted: Bitcoin fell more than 5% as the vote approached failure, the largest daily drop since June. Shares of Coinbase and Circle fell as much as 10%.
