Solana drops 7% as breakout fails; analysts flag 2022-style pullback

Solana drops 7%, slips back into range; SOL ETFs net $1.5B despite 57% drawdown

Solana (SOL) erased its mid-week pop. Analysts flag downside risk, while SOL spot ETFs keep attracting cash.

SOL fell 7% intraday Friday to ~$84, giving back most gains. The coin has traded in a $78–$88 band since the early‑February selloff.

Mid‑week, SOL jumped 13% to $94.05 before settling in $88–$92. Trader Tardigrade said a confirmed breakout could target $100, noting a retest of the range break as support on X.

Rekt Capital compared current conditions to early bear‑market behavior. He highlighted monthly levels at $123.28 and $99.06. A monthly close below both would confirm lost support and could set up retests as resistance, echoing 2022 price action in his note.

Shallow bounces risk quick rejection near $99.06. A stronger rally could revisit $123.28 before the next move is decided, per the same analysis here.

ETF flows tell a different story. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas said SOL is down 57% since spot ETFs launched in July, yet the category amassed $1.5B in net inflows and “has not really given any of it up” on X. He added about half of those flows came from institutions, calling it a strong base via NewsBTC.

“Solana is defying physics here,” he wrote, noting that ETFs rarely pull inflows when the underlying drops 57% in six months. Adjusted for market cap versus Bitcoin (BTC), he estimated SOL ETFs’ net new flows equate to ~$54B, roughly double what BTC ETFs saw at a similar post‑launch stage when BTC was rising via NewsBTC.

The streak cooled Thursday. The SOL ETF category logged $5.23M in outflows, its first negative day in over a month per SoSoValue.