Amber Data projects $90k–$120k base, 25% chance Bitcoin hits $180k
Amberdata sets Bitcoin’s 2026 paths. Base case targets $90k–$120k; bull case sees up to $180k.
Bitcoin spiked near $74k midweek, then slipped to ~$68,260 by week’s end. The firm says leverage was flushed in October, and new highs remain possible this year. Amberdata report. Chart.
Post-liquidation reset. Amberdata says October’s liquidation cleared excess leverage after headlines on Donald Trump’s tariff policies hit the market. Open interest was unsustainable. Basis trades were crowded. Funding showed stretched longs. A cascade followed, wiping weak hands and normalizing valuations. Liquidity is still thin. The carry trade lost appeal. Structure looks healthier but lacks a clear catalyst. Source.
- Base case 50%: Bitcoin ranges $90k–$120k. Consolidation extends until a macro catalyst emerges. Early signs: basis APR recovers to 8–10%, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows turn consistently positive, order book depth nears pre-crash levels, funding stabilizes slightly positive. Source
- Bull case 25%: Bitcoin climbs $120k–$180k on faster institutional and sovereign adoption. Signals: weekly spot ETF inflows over $1B, basis above 15% as leverage demand returns, new accumulation cohorts in HODL waves. Source
- Bear case 20%: Bitcoin trades $60k–$80k if macro worsens and risk-off dominates. Warnings: sustained ETF outflows over $1B per week, basis below 3%, broad stablecoin redemptions, a test of the ~$80k ETF cost basis. Source
- Chop 5%: Bitcoin oscillates $75k–$110k without trend. Indicators: whipsaw funding rates, open interest spikes then clears, ETF flows alternate between inflows and outflows. Source
Amberdata’s takeaway: the market looks cleaner after October. But it needs a fresh catalyst to break the range. Report.
