Options traders cut hedges; Bitcoin hits $78,570; Zcash open interest jumps 28%
Bitcoin’s implied volatility and price: Options hedges bought for the US midterms were unwound, pushing implied volatility to post-hack lows while BTC rebounded to $78,570. Deribit’s DVOL fell to 37.03 this morning from 40.76 at midday Tuesday. BTC rose 3.7% from the $75,736 overnight low.
Options positioning and market signals
- DVOL context: The Binance hack drove DVOL to 44.25 within four hours. Midterm-related DVOL peaked at 40.89, indicating less perceived risk.
- Deribit skew: Open interest shows 193,024 BTC in calls vs 132,544 BTC in puts. Put-to-call ratio: 0.69. Calls also led in the last 24 hours.
- Key strikes for November 27 expiry: Largest single call position: 4,484 BTC at $90,000. Largest put: 2,880 BTC at $75,000, near this week’s low.
- Polymarket probabilities:
- $80,000 this month: 85.5%
- $85,000: 39.5%
- $90,000: 15.5%
- Dip to $75,000: 60.5%
- Futures positioning: OKX BTC open interest up 4.2% in 24 hours to $3.86 billion. Long-to-short ratio fell to 1.88 from 2.74.
- Perps funding: Hyperliquid funding at the default 0.01% every eight hours, indicating balanced positioning.
- ETF flows: US spot BTC ETFs recorded $115.56 million net outflows on Tuesday, November 3. Thirty-day outflows: $1.32 billion. Spot ETH funds: $85.35 million outflows.
Price structure and levels to watch
Support: The $75,736 wick bounced above the 200-day EMA at $76,530. BTC has not closed below the 200-day EMA since the Binance hack.
Resistance: BTC sits about $1,500 below the 50-day EMA at $80,076.
- $80,076: 50-day EMA, sloping down
- $81,971: October 29 high
- $76,530: 200-day EMA
- $75,736: recent low, then $74,968: September low
BTCUSDT 1D chart. Source: TradingView
| Outlook | Trigger | Level to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Rebound | A daily close above $80,076 | $81,971, the October 29 high |
| Holding pattern | BTC stays between $76,530 and $80,076 | A range while volatility stays low |
| Sell-off | A daily close below $75,736 | $74,968, the September low |
Altcoin moves and futures context
Leverage and spot dynamics vary across leading gainers. Prices and lows from Binance, open interest from OKX at about 11:45 UTC.
| Coin | Price | From 24h low | OKX open interest, 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zcash (ZEC) | $1,314 | +13.4% | +28.2% |
| NEAR | $4.10 | +11.1% | +2.0% |
| Ethena (ENA) | $0.1847 | +10.4% | -3.2% |
| Pepe (PEPE) | $0.00000509 | +7.8% | +7.8% |
| Uniswap (UNI) | $7.48 | +7.7% | +5.0% |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | $86.97 | +7.4% | +7.5% |
| Ether (ETH) | $2,337 | +4.9% | +6.8% |
| Solana (SOL) | $94.03 | +4.6% | +5.5% |
| XRP | $1.2944 | +4.2% | +4.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $78,696 | +3.9% | +4.2% |
- Zcash: Rally driven by leverage. OKX open interest increased 28% to $196 million. Hyperliquid open interest stands at $662 million. NU7 is the catalyst: the Zcash Foundation’s Zebra 7.0.0 release activates at block 3,543,405, a height merged into the Zcash specs on October 21.
- NEAR: Gains led by spot demand. Open interest up 2%. Binance volume reached $108 million, near XRP’s $111 million. US ETF provisional data shows $3.60 million in outflows on Tuesday.
- Ethena: Price increased as open interest fell 3.2%, indicating short covering.
Summary: Election-related risk premium faded and options pricing implies a quieter month with mild upside bias. Technical structure: support near the 200-day EMA at $76,530 and resistance around the 50-day EMA at $80,076. Altcoin activity diverges, with Zcash leverage rising into the NU7 upgrade while NEAR and ENA show spot-led and short-covering dynamics.
Authors credited by the source: Daniel Francis
Published by Holder based on an external source.
