NewsBTC
Apr 7, 2025
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Bitcoin Faces Bear Market Signals as Realized Cap Declines

2 min

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to decline, with critical factors influencing its market trajectory highlighted by industry expert Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant.

Key Insights

  • The current Bitcoin bull cycle may be ending, based on the Realized Cap metric, which measures capital entering the BTC market through on-chain activity.
  • Realized Cap is calculated by averaging wallet costs and multiplying by the amount of BTC held, reflecting actual capital versus market capitalization based on trading price.
  • Low sell pressure allows modest buys to significantly impact prices; this was evident when MicroStrategy acquired Bitcoin via convertible bonds.

Current Market Conditions

  • Bitcoin has dropped below $80,000, facing high sell pressure that hinders price movements despite large trading volumes.
  • Ju notes an increase in Realized Cap without corresponding market cap appreciation indicates a bearish trend.
  • Historical data suggests significant market reversals take at least six months, making short-term rallies unlikely.

Resistance Levels

  • Expert Ali Martinez identifies a resistance cluster at $87,000, where key moving averages converge.
  • Critical resistance points for upward momentum are at $85,470 and $92,950, with vital support at $80,450. Failure to hold this level may lead to further declines.

As of now, Bitcoin trades at $78,379, down 6% on Sunday.