Crypto Analyst Reduces Bitcoin Exposure, Cites Increased Peak Probability
Bob Loukas, a veteran crypto analyst, has reduced his Bitcoin exposure, selling one-third of his model portfolio at $79,500. He cites increasing probability that Bitcoin may have peaked in the current four-year cycle due to technical deterioration and macroeconomic concerns.
- Model portfolio now holds 27 BTC, with remaining cash as a hedge against downside risk.
- Loukas emphasizes ongoing bullish potential but acknowledges heightened risks.
- He warns that recent price actions signal possible transition into a declining market phase.
- Technical breaks on charts indicate significant structural issues.
- Loukas highlights serious macroeconomic headwinds, including tariffs and trade issues, which could impact Bitcoin's performance.
- A potential bear scenario may see Bitcoin dropping to around $52,000, presenting a reentry opportunity.
- He suggests any major rally followed by lower lows could confirm a four-year cycle top.
- Loukas does not rule out higher highs later this year, considering a "super right-translated cycle" scenario.
Currently, BTC is trading at $77,743.
