Bitcoin rebounds to $63,200; analysts warn bottom not yet formed

Ardi says BTC bottom not in. Ali Martinez maps $54k–$43k zone.

Bitcoin bounced from ~$59,000. Two analysts read the move differently.

Analyst Ardi says the bottom likely isn’t formed yet. He sees a retail–institutional disconnect during this range. Retail has been buying dips, while larger players sell bounces. He argues this isn’t how major bottoms form in bear cycles, and true capitulation is absent. His thread outlines the pattern and timing risk for BTC downside here. Context on the recent slide is here, with bear-cycle dynamics here, and large holders cutting risk here.

ETF flows add pressure. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record net outflows last month and posted red prints in 15 of the last 16 sessions, weighing on price source.

Analyst Ali Martinez sees a different setup. He says a macro accumulation phase is starting after leverage was flushed and long-term holders sold $3.25B in spot BTC, speeding the move source. His post cites 10.46M BTC now held at a loss and notes this threshold has aligned with prior macro bottoms. He highlights MVRV 1.0–0.8 bands implying a potential bottom at $53,900–$43,150 his view and MVRV context here.

• ETF flows turned negative on 15 of 16 days source
• LTH spot distribution hit $3.25B source
• Supply in loss at 10.46M BTC source
• MVRV bands signal $53,900–$43,150 zone source

BTC trades near $63,200 at publication time, up on the day data.