Bitcoin breaks STH-RP; $2.4B losses in 48 hours

Bitcoin fell through the Short-Term Holder Realized Price. High-conviction wallets realized ~$2.4B in losses into June 5.

Price slipped from ~$69k to ~$62k. Short-term holders signaled capitulation on-chain. Source, Coinspeaker.

Risk-off hit equities. Over $2B in long liquidations across crypto derivatives. Fear & Greed printed 12/100, last seen at COVID and FTX lows. Coinspeaker.

On-chain shows losses by long-term holders. LTH-SOPR fell below 1.0, meaning coins held >155 days sold at a loss. Coinspeaker.

Past cycles saw similar prints at major lows: January 2015, December 2018, November 2022. Recent selling includes ~26% from buyers above $90k. Distribution replaced accumulation. Coinspeaker.

Glassnode places MVRV Z-Score near -1.5σ, around the $62k–$65k area. Supply in loss is elevated. Bottom not confirmed. Glassnode.

Realized Cap HODL Wave shows 1–3 month turnover. Older cohorts remain concentrated. Signals for a durable bottom are absent. Coinspeaker.

Market is down ~30–35% from peak. Prior cycles kept uptrends intact at similar drawdowns. Duration remains uncertain. Coinspeaker.

• Bull case STH-RP reclaimed within 5–10 days. ETF flows turn positive. LTH spending slows. $62k–$65k holds. Targets $85k–$92k in 60–90 days if macro stabilizes. Coinspeaker
• Base case Range forms at $60k–$68k for 4–8 weeks. LTH distribution completes. Realized losses flatten. ETFs net positive without sharp pumps. Coinspeaker
• Bear case Daily close below $60k triggers a second flush to $52k–$55k. Fear & Greed worsens. ETF outflows persist. LTH-SOPR below 0.90. Coinspeaker

Liquidity clusters sit near ~$83k above local highs and at ~$60k below. Daan Crypto Trades.

Key tell now: do daily LTH realized losses compress. No compression means capitulation continues. Coinspeaker.