Bitcoin Trades Below ETF Cost-Basis As MVRV Signals Pressure

In January, Bitcoin continued its downtrend, dipping below key psychological levels. By February, it breached the cost basis of major investor cohorts, notably Bitcoin ETF investors.

MVRV Index Analysis

• The ETF MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) index dropped below 1, indicating heightened stress in the BTC market due to unrealized losses.
• This trend suggests increased sell-pressure as investors may exit positions at break-even or minimal losses to prevent deeper losses.

• The realized price for Bitcoin ETFs is around $80,000, potentially acting as resistance during a rebound attempt.
• If MVRV stabilizes between 0.8–0.9, it might signal bear pressure exhaustion, leading to a short-term rebound.
• A continued decline in MVRV could lead to further sell-offs, increasing downward pressure on prices.

Bitcoin Market Overview

• Currently, Bitcoin trades at $68,000, showing a 1.58% increase in the past 24 hours.
• February saw a net outflow of $1.08 billion from Bitcoin ETFs, following a $1.61 billion withdrawal in January.