Bitcoin Trading at $84,000 Amid Speculation of Bear Market

Bitcoin is trading at around $84,000, approximately 23% below its all-time high of $109,114 from January 2025. This decline has led to speculation of a bear market; however, analysts are highlighting on-chain metrics that may indicate otherwise.

Key points include:

• CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju suggests Bitcoin's bull cycle might be over, predicting 6-12 months of sideways or bearish action due to lack of liquidity and increased selling by whales.
• Ju clarified he does not expect a major crash but rather extended consolidation.
• He noted that most retail investments are happening through ETFs, which do not reflect directly on on-chain metrics.
• 80% of spot ETF inflows are reportedly retail-driven, suggesting potential for new buying waves when macroeconomic conditions improve.

Market Valuation Perspectives

Analyst Merlijn believes Bitcoin is significantly undervalued, estimating it should be around $250,000 based on past cycles.

Technical indicators show:

• Bitcoin bounced off the 50-week Exponential Moving Average with a bullish cross on the Stochastic RSI, historically leading to price surges.
• Currently, Bitcoin is near the middle Bollinger Band (20-day SMA) at $85,061, indicating consolidation.
• A break above $92,155 could signal a bullish breakout.
• The 14-day RSI is at 45.6, indicating neutral momentum but nearing oversold territory, which may present buying opportunities.

Short-term predictions include a potential pullback to $73,700, a key support level, as indicated by technical analyst Aksel Kibar. The reaction at this level will be critical for determining Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming months.