BULLISH 📈 : Arthur Hayes sets $150 target for Hyperliquid HYPE by August 2026
Arthur Hayes targets $150 HYPE by Aug 2026 on fees, buybacks, HIP‑3
Arthur Hayes makes a high‑conviction bet on Hyperliquid. He sees HYPE at $150 by August 2026 even in a weak market.
He lays out the case in an essay. Exchanges earn fees in chop. Hyperliquid routes 97% of revenue to HYPE buybacks. “No other project hands as much money back,” he writes. Source: Hayes’ essay, buyback detail via NewsBTC.
The target implies ~5x from ~$30. His model needs 30‑day annualized revenue at $1.4B. He says Hyperliquid hit that run rate last August. He assumes a rerate from ~12x to ~25.2x earnings. Source: Hayes’ essay.
He doesn’t need perps to expand. He needs share gains. A 3.97 pp share lift gets back to $1.4B run rate. Source: Hayes’ essay.
HIP‑3 is the engine. It enables permissionless perp listings. Staking 500,000 HYPE lets users launch markets. Early traction: silver, gold, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500. HIP‑3 drove ~10% of revenues in four months. Source: Hayes’ essay and NewsBTC on HIP‑3.
He models HIP‑3 revenue up 160% in six months. HIP‑4 could add permissionless prediction markets. Not in base case. Source: Hayes’ essay.
Competition is the pushback. He says volumes get distorted by wash trading and points. He prefers ADV‑to‑OI as the “real” usage metric. On that, Hyperliquid leads top perp DEXs. Order‑book checks for Bitcoin perps showed best execution after slippage. Source: Hayes’ essay.
He addresses token supply. He cites ~20% of awarded tokens distributed in Nov–Dec. About ~1% in Jan–Feb. He says the team then reduced distributions. He flags this as partly speculative. Source: Hayes’ essay.
His stress case still uplifts. At 12x earnings, team receiving 9.91M HYPE per month, and $1.4B annualized revenue, he gets $58 per HYPE. Source: Hayes’ essay.
- Price target: $150 by Aug 2026 (source)
- Buybacks: 97% of revenue to HYPE (source)
- Revenue run rate: $1.4B needed, hit before in Aug 2025 per Hayes (source)
- Multiple: ~12x to ~25.2x earnings rerate (source)
- Share gain: +3.97 pp vs CEXs to reach run rate (source)
- HIP‑3: 500k HYPE stake to list; ~10% revenue in 4 months; +160% revenue growth modeled (source)
- HIP‑4: prediction markets optionality, not modeled (source)
- “Real” volume: ADV‑to‑OI leadership; best slippage on Bitcoin perps (source)
- Supply: ~20% token distribution Nov–Dec, ~1% Jan–Feb; then slowed (source)
- Stress case: $58 at 12x, 9.91M HYPE/month to team, $1.4B revenue (source)
At press time, HYPE traded at $33.237.
