Treasury yields jump above 5% and stall Bitcoin’s breakout

By Jonatan Randin, Senior Market Analyst at PrimeXBT

Mid September: the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate on 15 September, and the Fed raised the policy rate to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September. Bitcoin traded under $75,000 then moved above $87,000 within a week. The bond market shift then stalled Bitcoin’s advance.

Bond market shift

On 23 September the 10‑year US Treasury yield jumped more than 18 bps, the largest one‑day rise since April 2025, then rose above 5.2% on 24 September, the highest since 2007. The 30‑year approached 5.50%, last seen in 2004. Drivers: strong PMI data, a weak five‑year auction, higher oil. The Treasury conducted a $4 billion long‑bond buyback on 24 September, yet yields continued higher.

Rate hike impact versus bond selloff

The hike was priced: futures implied about 90% probability before the meeting. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $750 million outflows on 15–16 September, then $2.39 billion inflows in the week to 25 September, the largest since October 2025, according to Farside Investors.

Daily ETF inflows weakened as yields rose: $999 million Monday, $715 million Tuesday, $347 million Wednesday, $191 million Thursday, $135 million Friday. Bond selloffs lack predefined limits. Yields above 5% compete with non‑yielding assets. Higher borrowing costs can widen the deficit and increase bond supply, which some in crypto interpret as a long‑term case for Bitcoin. Near term, flows show yield pressure dominating.

Bitcoin is holding prior gains but not extending them.

Chart structure

On the 3‑day chart, Bitcoin broke above the $70,000 region around 20 August, consolidated near $80,000, then broke higher last week to above $87,000 before pulling back. This marks a first higher high on higher timeframes since the bear market began.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 3‑day chart with 20 and 50 EMA. Breakout above $80,000 forms the first higher high since the bear market began. The 20 EMA crossed above the 50 EMA. Source: TradingView

The 20 EMA crossed above the 50 EMA on the 3‑day for the first time since their November 2025 bearish crossover. Price is retracing the latest leg higher. Higher‑timeframe support: $80,000. The 50% Fibonacci of the $75,000 to $87,000 move sits near $81,000. Holding the $80,000 area keeps the constructive structure. A sustained move below would challenge the higher‑high signal.

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