Trump considers leaving Iran conflict if Tehran reopens Strait of Hormuz

President Trump is reportedly considering ending the Iran conflict without a nuclear deal if Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Wall Street Journal. Iran has raised its demands, which complicates negotiations and introduces risks to oil supply stability.

Key developments

• Objective shift: Trump is willing to walk away from a nuclear deal if Hormuz is reopened, prioritizing maritime flow over a comprehensive agreement.
• Rising Iranian demands: Iran seeks billions of dollars in US payments, removal of US troops from the region, and additional concessions to reopen the strait.
• US stance on timing: US officials indicate Trump is prepared to wait as long as gasoline prices remain stable.
• Nuclear assessment: Trump has told aides he believes Iran is unlikely to revive its nuclear program during his presidency.

Implications for markets and crypto

• Oil supply risk: The Strait of Hormuz handles a significant share of global seaborne oil. Delays or elevated demands from Iran increase the risk of partial or prolonged disruptions, which can raise energy prices and market volatility.
• Macro volatility: Higher oil prices and geopolitical tension can pressure risk assets. Crypto often exhibits mixed reactions: potential haven flows during geopolitical stress versus risk-off drawdowns alongside equities.
• Policy uncertainty: The absence of a nuclear framework and the introduction of complex conditions raise uncertainty premiums across commodities and FX, which can spill over to crypto liquidity and pricing.

Bottom line

Negotiations are more complex due to Iran’s escalated demands. As long as gasoline prices remain contained, the US is likely to wait, but any disruption risk at Hormuz skews near-term macro sentiment toward risk-off, a bearish tilt for crypto.