Bitcoin trades below STH cost basis $81k, signals remain untriggered
Willy Woo says Bitcoin hasn’t triggered the three end‑of‑bear signals. Price still sits well below recent buyers’ cost basis.
Title: Willy Woo: Bitcoin hasn’t hit 3 bear-bottom signals; STH cost basis near $81k
- Woo lists three markers for bear-market ends on X.
- Price must reclaim the short‑term holder (STH) cost basis. Fresh buying should follow. Then the STH cost basis should turn up.
The chart shows Bitcoin fell under the STH cost basis in Q4 2025 and stayed below. The gap has widened since.
In bears, coins trade lower, so the STH cost basis trends down. A trend reversal up signals buyers returning at higher prices per Woo.
“Given price is not even close to the cost basis of recent investors, and that cost basis is dropping each day… there’s no point in buying until a cross becomes imminent. Bear markets are about patience,” Woo wrote on X.
The STH cost basis sits around $81,000, implying recent buyers hold over a 14% unrealized loss by Woo’s data. Last week ended below $67,000; price rebounded Monday to $69,500 for Bitcoin.
