BEARISH 📉 : Loukas begins buying, warns Bitcoin could fall to $53,000 before cycle low
Loukas says Bitcoin has entered the final stage of its four‑year cycle. He warns the market may need another leg lower before a durable bottom.
He frames the recent retest of February lows as normal cycle behavior, not a regime change. The February decline is documented here. The May rebound toward the low‑$80k range looked countertrend. Price stalled near $83k, then fell ~25% back toward February levels.
He says Bitcoin peaked in October and broke below the 10‑month moving average, confirming the prior cycle advance ended.
Loukas began reaccumulating. His model portfolio bought 10 BTC at $65,000. Allocation now ~58% Bitcoin, 41% cash.
The key level is $53,000. He plans to deploy all remaining cash there to reach 100% allocation. “At the $53,000 level, we’re tagging the midpoint of the entire four‑year cycle,” he said.
A move to $53k would be ~57% off the cycle high. He notes past bear markets saw larger drawdowns, including 77% in the 2021–2022 cycle per this review. A 65%–70% drawdown “shouldn’t become a surprise” given Bitcoin’s history, but is not his prediction.
He allows a bullish alternative. The current retest could form a shorter cycle low as a double bottom, then base into late summer and later push above the May highs. He puts the probability near 25% as discussed here.
His base case sees the cycle low forming closer to the traditional window in October–November, with December possible. Bitcoin is now in month 43 of the cycle, near the 47–48 month average for lows. “The window has been hit.”
Near term, he sees room for an oversold bounce toward the 10‑week MA around $73k, then lower. He says Bitcoin should not trade above the May high near $83k–$85k in the coming months unless a new cycle has started.
At publication, BTC traded at $62,247.
