Ray Dalio tells investors to own Bitcoin amid US debt stress

2 min

Bitcoin trades near $77,300, up +0.8% in 24 hours after a volatile week. Ray Dalio urged investors to hold “a bit of Bitcoin” as a hedge amid escalating US fiscal strains he outlined in “How Countries Go Broke.” He cited Japan reducing Treasury holdings, rising long-term yields, a weakening dollar, and Treasury’s expanded buybacks as evidence of accelerating debt stress. Dalio estimates a near-$2T US federal deficit in 2026, ~$32T in public debt, and annual interest costs approaching $1T. His allocation guidance: underweight bonds, 10–15% gold, and add Bitcoin against currency debasement.

Market context and price action

BTC rallied from ~$63,500 to above $78,000 last week, linked to Treasury buyback changes and roughly $4B in short liquidations. Current range over 24 hours: ~$76,711–$78,024 per CoinGecko, indicating consolidation. Technical levels: support near $70,505 with deeper levels at $67,356 and $65,420; resistance clusters between $76,020 and $78,713.

Bull case: a break and hold above $78,713 signals continuation and reopens the path to prior all-time-highs if macro allocators respond to Dalio’s thesis.
Base case: chop within $73,000–$78,000 as the market digests buyback-driven gains.
Bear case: a drop below $73,977 points to short-squeeze dynamics fading, targeting $70,505.

Macro thesis vs. allocation constraints

Dalio’s endorsement aligns with a debasement hedge thesis. At current market capitalization, doubling Bitcoin requires trillions in new capital, which affects upside expectations for large-cap assets. Traders weigh whether the recent move reflects structural demand or short-covering mechanics.

Liquidity and order flow note

$BTC has one small liquidity cluster around the $75,400 level.

After this, there are big liquidity clusters around $78,000-$80,000.

So, Bitcoin could have a small retrace before pumping back to $80,000. pic.twitter.com/VmH4xBe0hh

— Ted (@TedPillows) August 23, 2026