AI 생산 시대가 컴퓨트 소유권을 핵심 자산으로 만들고 시장은 크립토 인프라를 재평가한다

AI 2040: Compute ownership becomes the choke point. Crypto re-rated as ownership and payout rails.

US and China pause the superintelligence race, then restart under control. Value shifts from AI models to compute, power, fabs, robots, data centers, and land.

- 2029: both sides agree to halt superintelligence competition. 2035: progress capped at top human-expert level. 2040: expansion to superintelligence resumes after control is verified.

- Governance centers on compute. Secure time, open research, distribute frontier AI, keep compute reversible. Algorithms, once leaked, stick. Chips and data centers can be restricted or scrapped.

- The economy still explodes under limits. By 2032, 60 million AI agents work 20x faster than humans. Physical bottlenecks hit mines, factories, logistics. Scenario shows US real GDP growth at 50%.

- Taxes shift as labor income falls. States charge permits on compute and robot production, then pay a citizen dividend. By 2035, AI and robots do 85% of labor. US adult dividend reaches $1 million per year.

- Competition commoditizes AI margins. Scarcity accrues to compute, electricity, semiconductor manufacturing, data centers, robots, and land. Ownership and settlement infrastructure gain.

- When AI runs production, ownership of compute and capital goods decides cash flows. Payout layers matter. Crypto is reassessed as the infrastructure for ownership, payments, and dividends.