Bitwise CIO projects Circle’s $75B valuation by 2030 despite selloff
Circle’s CRCL fell 22% to $98 after reports of a Senate draft that would ban stablecoin yield. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan called the selloff “overblown” and kept his long-term view intact.
The move followed headlines that the revised CLARITY Act would bar platforms from paying yield for holding a stablecoin, directly or via bank‑like structures. NewsBTC reported the 22% drop and the draft details.
Hougan said the new draft “doesn’t change the base case” for Circle. He argued interest hasn’t driven stablecoin adoption. Utility has. “People aren’t parking their money there for the yield,” he wrote, noting average savings and checking yields of 0.60% and 0.07%. Bitwise CIO memo.
Circle issues USDC, the No. 2 dollar stablecoin behind Tether’s USDT. Hougan cites a 25% overall market share for USDC and 80%+ in regulated, onshore stablecoins. He expects growth to skew to that segment. Bitwise CIO memo.
Key projections from Hougan:
- Stablecoin AUM by 2030: $1.9T base case, $4T bull case, citing Citi. Bitwise CIO memo
- Circle’s earnings profile today: roughly 4% on about $80B backing USDC; ~60% shared with distributors like Coinbase; ~1.6% net take rate. Bitwise CIO memo
- Take rate by 2030: modeled at ~0.8%. Bitwise CIO memo
- Implied Circle valuation: $75B by 2030, even after CLARITY Act headlines. Bitwise CIO memo
Hougan’s stance: stablecoins win on speed, cost, and global reach for settlements, collateral, and cross‑border use. Yield bans don’t remove those drivers. Bitwise CIO memo.
Headline: Circle stock drops 22% on proposed stablecoin-yield ban; Bitwise CIO says reaction ‘overblown’, models $75B valuation by 2030
