BEARISH 📉 : Analyst forecasts prolonged Bitcoin slump; market bottom expected late 2026
Analyst Greeny says the Bitcoin (BTC) downtrend is early. History points to a bottom near late 2026 and a long accumulation after.
He shared a new cycle study on X. BTC has repeated peak-to-bottom timings in prior cycles per his chart.
• 2013–2015 bottomed in ~410 days source
• 2017–2018 in ~363 days source
• From the 2021 peak to 2022 bottom in ~376 days
Average across the three: ~383 days source.
We are ~five months past the October 2025 peak. He expects the slide to persist for months analysis, not a quick rebound source.
Drawdowns were deep in prior bears. 2011 fell ~93%. 2015 fell ~85%. 2022 fell ~77% after the 2021 bull source, context.
He notes BTC is ~42% below its cycle ATH above $126,000 reference. He adds that institutional demand may limit the depth, but timing still tracks history view.
Post-bottom, cycles lingered in accumulation. 2015 held ~15 months. 2018 and 2022 each ~18 months before a new uptrend historical context, floor-to-shift timing.
What to expect now: he places the average macro bottom around 363 days after the peak, implying late 2026 or later analysis. After the floor, he expects 12–16 months of accumulation before confirmation of a trend shift source.
For recent volatility drivers, see the latest drop coverage report and why the crash may persist outlook.