BEARISH 📉 : Analyst warns Bitcoin may drop 20%, bottom likely around October
Rekt Capital warns the BTC bottom may not be in. His new X video points to more time and possible downside ahead.
In a video analysis on X, the analyst compares cycles and says Bitcoin (BTC) is only ~14% below its 2021 ATH of $69,000, versus a 22% deviation from the 2017 peak at the last bottom.
He adds that one metric isn’t enough. Duration matters. Bear phases historically last at least a year. The 2021–2022 correction took ~365 days. The current pullback sits near 240 days.
If the timeline rhymes, BTC could need 120+ more days. That puts a likely bottom window around October, with risk it extends if the cycle skews longer, per the same analysis.
Depth is another piece. Prior drawdowns were 84% in 2018 and 77% in 2021–2022. This cycle’s retrace is ~53% to date. Rekt Capital notes a trend of shallower bears by roughly 7%–10% each cycle.
Key levels and timelines, per the analysis:
- A repeat of the “shallower by ~7%” pattern implies ~70% off the peak. That points to a possible bottom in the high $30,000s.
- If the shallowing accelerates toward 10%, the low could form in the low $40,000s.
- Another leg down of up to 20% remains possible over the next four to five months.
- Typical pattern includes consolidation, then a final drop before bottoming.
“This bear market here (…) precedes an entire period of multi-year upside,” Rekt Capital says in the video.
